Pax Gaea Human Rights World Post

The chaos of a tyrant's passing

Turkmenistan's authoritarian ruler, Saparmurat Niyazov, reportedly died earlier today. For 21 years he has ruled this former Soviet satellite state with an iron hand. He crushed all dissent, took control of the Khalk maslakhaty or People's Assembly, the nation's legislature, and had himself name President-For-Life.

A review of the Turkmenistan constitution shows that succession should pass to the Prime Minister and Chairman of the Parliament but that would be Niyazov himself. According to Article 61 "If the President, for some reason, is not capable of meeting her or his obligations, until the election of a new President, her or his powers are transferred to the Chair of Parliament. In such a situation, a presidential election should be conducted no later than two months from the day of transfer of powers to the Chair of Parliament. A person meeting the obligations of the President may not be a candidate in the presidential election."

Because of Niyazov's assumption of absolute power he has, in effect, created a Constitutional crisis as no one is constitutionally authorized to take control of the nation. According to news reports, Deputy Prime Minister Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov is leading the delegation making arrangements for the funeral and there is a very good likelihood that he would be the natural selection to replace Niyazov. Opposition leaders however, in exile in Sweden, claim that he is related to Niyazov who's past is somewhat murky and plan to challenge that succession.

Niyazov is one of the last holdovers from the Soviet strongman days. Rising to power in 1985, Turkmenbashi or "Father of the Turkmen", took control of the nation in the waning days of the Soviet empire and never let go. He outlawed opposition, developed a cult of personality similar to Kim Jong-il of North Korea and Fidel Castro of Cuba and had thousands of statues and portraits of himself erected through the desert country. But unlike Castro or Kim, Niyazov never received the demonization of his contemporaries as Turkmenistan sits on vast reserves of natural gas. Likewise, his agenda, fueled from his Soviet indoctrination, was to clamp down on any group that posed a threat to his power.

After September 11, he found a way to secure his power base by immediately signing on to the United States' War on Terror which helped neutralize the growing power of the Turkmen islamists. There have been suggestions that Turkmenistan has been one of the third party nations that have housed secret prisons and interrogation facilities, a likely circumstance considering Turkmenistan's adjacency with the northern border of Afghanistan. This cooperation could likewise be the reason why Turkmenistan has become a major "transit country for Afghan narcotics bound for Russian and Western European markets" as well as a "transit point for heroin precursor chemicals bound for Afghanistan", according to the CIA World Factbook.

Opposition groups in exile, particularly the National Democratic Movement of Turkmenistan, have indicated they will use this sudden change to find a way to return home as soon as possible. According to news reports, Ashgabad, the nation's capital is ghostly quiet with few exterior signs of a sudden tragedy. Reuters claims that papers have not been delivered as usual and several attempts by me to access government and media websites in Turkmenistan have been unsuccessful.

This leads to many questions that will most likely be answered over the next few days and months. How will the people of Turkmenistan react to the news of Turkmenbashi's sudden death? And will the People's Assembly use the old soviet protocol of transferring power to the person charged with arranging a dead leader's funeral? And what of the new leadership? Will they maintain as firm of a grasp as Niyazov or use this opportunity to liberalize their policies within the country? And will this vital corridor for Afghani precursor chemicals and finished opiates close, or open even further? As the Northern Alliance of Afghanistan depends on this conduit for marketing their drugs to Russian and Europe, will they be willing to wage a border conflict to keep that door open? Or, will the long oppressed muslim leadership use this as an opportunity to attempt to be a conduit for the Taliban in Afghanistan?

And who will be flying to Turkmenistan from the United States for what is likely to be a massive state funeral inconveniently close to Christmas? Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice? Vice President Cheney? President Bush? Or will this be left to a delegation of lower level State Department representatives? On that point, it is interesting to note that the United States does not at present have an ambassador in Turkmenistan so the responsibility will fall on Charge d'Affaires Jennifer Brush to head up the permanent delegation. Like the media and government websites in Turkmenistan, the embassy website is likewise off line and, it is safe to assume, she is currently working with a very small staff as many of the diplomats have most likely taken Christmas leave, perhaps Ms. Brush herself.

Absolute power not only corrupts absolutely, it likewise makes life a real headache when the tyrant succumbs to the ultimate absolute.

Death.

posted by Dave Carroll @ 12/21/2006 03:06:00 AM